A Quick Guide to Using Implied Odds

Implied odds are a very useful calculation in limit hold’em, but also has value for a no limit player both in cash games and in tournaments like the upcoming WSOP 2011 live tournament series. It is the odds that you will make additional money aside from what is in the pot if you make your hand. Think about it like this. Your opponent bets $100 into a $100 pot on the turn, and you have the nut flush draw. We’ll assume that you know your opponent is a tight player, so hitting the ace won’t do you any good. You’re getting 2:1 on a call, and you only have an 18% chance, using the rule of 2, of making your draw. So, this looks like a clear fold, and if your opponent was all in, it would be. But, let’s say our opponent has another $1,000 behind his $100 bet. Implied odds are what determine if the amount that he may pay off on the river make calling the turn bet worth it.

Making the calculations.
The trick is, the amount that you can expect to be payed off on the river is never a tangent number. You have to assign a range to it, based on a number of factors. Is your opponent likely to be aware that you made your hand? At the best online poker sites, no one would ever give you credit, but that's not realistic. Is he likely to fire again when the card makes, or just check and call, or possibly even check and fold? The more disguised your draw is, the bigger your implied odds are; a gutshot like 45 on a A28 board is more likely to extract value than J10 on a 893 board; the Q and 7 both just look very scary for bringing in potential straights. If your opponent is a complete rock, the implied odds may be very small; you may not be able to make a dime when you make your flush. A wild player may reap huge rewards if you make your flush; he may actually be willing to commit the entire $1,000 if you play the hand correctly. So, be aware of your opponent before calculating the implied odds.

Implied odds in action.
Let’s go back to the hand in question, where you’re faced with a $100 bet on the turn. We’ll make your opponent a weak, tight player who you assume has a strong hand, something like two pair or a set. If you hit, we’ll assume he’ll still bet his hand every time, but not as big of a bet; $200 seems like a good bet. Then, when you reraise, which we’ll make a flat $500, he’ll call that raise about half the time. So, 75% of the time, you make roughly $200. The other 25%, you make a healthy $500. Let’s put this all together now; roughly 80% of the time, you’ll miss, and lose the $100 invested. 15% of the time, you’ll hit, and make a net gain of $300. (the $100 your opponent put in on the turn, plus the $200 bet) 5% of the time, you’ll hit, and make a net gain of $600. If you plug this in as -(.8*100)+(.15*300)+(.05*600)=-.05, meaning every time you make this call with the listed implied odds, you stake to lose about $5 on average. But, if you think instead of winning $600 from your opponent, you can stack him and take $1,100 from him 5% of the time instead, this becomes a call that nets you roughly $20 on average. Utilize implied odds when thinking about taking gambles on drawing hands; sometimes, a bad call may still be a profitable one.